Geological Risking Course

Understanding and Quantifying Uncertainty in Exploration

Cameron Snow

Subscribe View Sample Lesson 10:33 hours

Oil and gas exploration is a risky business, and it is crucial that oil and gas professionals be able to communicate to stakeholders the range of outcomes that are likely given an exploration prospect or portfolio. This course is designed to provide oil and gas professionals with the background knowledge to confidently perform a risk assessment of an exploration prospect.Read more...

Specifically, you will learn:
• The statistics and methods that are necessary to perform a risk assessment
• How to perform apples-to-apples assessments using a risking framework
• Applying Monte Carlo analysis for determining un-risked and risked volumetrics
• Understanding how to approach portfolios of exploration prospects

This course was designed to be equally applicable to both geoscientists, engineers, and planning staff with a broad range of experience. Whether you are an experienced wildcatter or are looking to demystify geological risking numbers, this course is for you.

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Course contents

    Chapter 2 - Basic Statistics

    02-01 - The Language of Statistics (3 min.)

    02-02 - Marginal Probability (2 min.)

    02-03 - Joint Probability (3 min.)

    02-04 - Conditional Probability (5 min.)

    02-05 - Probability of Success vs Failure (7 min.)

    02-06 - Probability Distributions (8 min.)

    02-07 - PDFs vs CDFs (4 min.)

    02-08 - Monte Carlo Analysis (7 min.)

    02-09 - Key Takeaways (2 min.)

    02-10 - Probability as Related to Risking (3 min.)

    02-11 - Data for Property Distributions (7 min.)

    02-12 - Identifying Distributions (8 min.)

    02-13 - Area Distribution (7 min.) Quiz

    Chapter 3 - Hydrocarbon Systems

    03-01 - What Is The Hydrocarbon System? (5 min.)

    03-02 - Structure / Trap (6 min.)

    03-03 - Seal (8 min.)

    03-04 - Reservoir (8 min.)

    03-05 - Source Rock Presence & Maturity (8 min.)

    03-06 - Migration (7 min.)

    03-07 - Considerations For Risking (5 min.)

    03-08 - Key Takeaways (5 min.)

    03-09 - Non-System Risk Categories (8 min.)

    03-10 - Risking by Hydrocarbon System Component (5 min.) Quiz

    Chapter 4 - Risking Frameworks

    04-01 - What Are Risking Frameworks (6 min.)

    04-02 - Risking Prospects (7 min.)

    04-03 - Milikov's Risking Framework (8 min.)

    04-04 - Risk Tables & Framework For Structure (10 min.)

    04-05 - Framework For Seal (8 min.)

    04-06 - Framework For Reservoir Presence (8 min.)

    04-07 - Framework For Reservoir Deliverability (7 min.)

    04-08 - Framework For Source Presence And Maturity (7 min.)

    04-09 - Framework For Migration From Source Kitchen (7 min.)

    04-10 - Building Your Own Framework (7 min.)

    04-11 - Key Takeaways (2 min.)

    04-12 - Two Risk Examples (8 min.) Quiz

    Chapter 5 - De-Risking and Reducing Uncertainty

    05-01 - De-Risking And Reducing Uncertainty (3 min.)

    05-02 - Example 1: Infill Seismic Lines (4 min.)

    05-03 - Example 2: Drilling Offset Well (2 min.)

    05-04 - Deciding On Further Data Acquisition (7 min.)

    05-05 - Common Risks Across a Portfolio (Part 1) (7 min.)

    05-06 - Common Risks Across a Portfolio (Part 2) (8 min.)

    05-07 - Summary (3 min.) Quiz

    Chapter 6 - Volumetric Analysis

    06-01 - Volumetric Calculations (7 min.)

    06-02 - Volumetrics With Ranges (5 min.)

    06-03 - Key Takeaways (3 min.)

    06-04 - Using Ranges Correctly (7 min.)

    06-05 - Monte Carlo For Ranges (7 min.)

    06-06 - Summary of Using Ranges (2 min.) Quiz

    Chapter 7 - Risked Volumetrics

    07-01 - Risked Volumes: The Wrong Way (8 min.)

    07-02 - Risked Volumes: The Right Way (5 min.)

    07-03 - Monte Carlo For Risks (5 min.)

    07-04 - Summary Of Risked Volumetrics (2 min.) Quiz

    Chapter 8 - Multiple Zones and Shared Risk

    08-01 - Example Scenario: Multiple Zones and Shared Risks (5 min.)

    08-02 - Shared vs. Independent Risks (6 min.)

    08-03 - Example : Shared vs. Independent Risks (6 min.)

    08-04 - Which Interpretation is Correct? (Part 1) (9 min.)

    08-05 - Which Interpretation is Correct? (Part 2) (8 min.)

    08-06 - Calculating Shared Risk (7 min.)

    08-07 - Calculating Shared Risk : Best Practice (4 min.)

    08-08 - Calculating Shared Risk : The Wrong Way (4 min.)

    08-09 - Key Takeaways (4 min.) Quiz

    Chapter 9 - Exploration Portfolios

    09-01 - Evaluating A Portfolio (7 min.)

    09-02 - Probability of Success vs Failure (6 min.)

    09-03 - Portfolio Shapes and Sizes (8 min.)

    09-04 - Evaluating A Portfolio - Creaming Curves (9 min.)

    09-05 - Evaluating A Portfolio - In Small Companies (8 min.)

    09-06 - Evaluating A Portfolio - Common Risks (9 min.)

    09-07 - Evaluating A Portfolio - Post Failure Analysis (9 min.)

    09-08 - Summary of Exploration Portfolios (6 min.) Quiz

    Chapter 10 - Stakeholder Communication

    10-01 - Communicating Risk (10 min.) Quiz

    Chapter 11 - Course Wrap-Up

    11-01 - Three Takeaway Messages (5 min.)

    Chapter 12 - Hands-On Examples

    12-01- Tools Required (8 min.)

    12-02 - Hands On Examples - Overview (4 min.)

    12-03 - Hands On Example 1 - Shiraz Metadata (3 min.)

    12-04 - Hands On Example 1 - Shiraz Risking (9 min.)

    12-05 - Hands On Example 1 - Shiraz Properties (9 min.)

    12-06 - Hands On Example 2 - Merlot Metadata (3 min.)

    12-07 - Hands On Example 2 - Merlot Risking (8 min.)

    12-08 - Hands On Example 2 - Merlot Properties (8 min.)

    12-09 - Hands On Example 3 - Malbec Metadata (2 min.)

    12-10 - Hands On Example 3 - Malbec Risking (8 min.)

    12-11 - Hands On Example 3 - Malbec Properties (5 min.)

    12-12 - Example Portfolio Overview (9 min.)